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U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs, including a 10% baseline duty on all foreign imports and higher rates on specific countries, are projected to significantly hinder global GDP growth and increase inflation. Analysts warn that these measures could provoke international retaliation, with China and the EU pledging responses. Businesses express concern over the uncertainty these tariffs create for operational planning.
Trump's recent tariff announcements have sparked global reactions, with the EU and China expressing strong dissatisfaction and preparing countermeasures. Analysts predict that while some tariffs may eventually decrease, the immediate impact could lead to economic slowdowns in the U.S., with effective tariff rates potentially rising significantly. The EU is expected to retaliate strategically, particularly targeting U.S. services, as tensions escalate in this trade conflict.
Donald Trump's newly announced tariffs, including a 10% baseline on all U.S. imports and higher rates on specific countries, could push the U.S. economy towards recession by increasing inflation and reducing consumer spending, according to JP Morgan's chief economist. The tariffs are projected to generate $400 billion in revenue but may lead to a significant contraction in real disposable income and consumer spending in the coming quarters. Global leaders are preparing retaliatory measures, raising concerns about widespread economic repercussions.
The US dollar weakened on April 3 after President Trump announced new tariffs on imports, set to take effect on April 9, imposing a 10% baseline levy on goods from 60 countries. This move raised concerns about a potential global economic slowdown, leading to declines in global stocks and increased demand for bonds and gold. The dollar index fell to 102.98, its lowest since October, reflecting a 4% decline this year, while Asian currencies struggled, with China's yuan hitting its weakest levels in months.
President Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, escalating a global trade war that could lead to inflation and economic slowdown. China faces a 34% tariff, while the EU and Japan are hit with 24% and 20% tariffs, respectively, prompting threats of countermeasures. Critics warn these tariffs could significantly impact American families and the global economy.
The European Union is preparing countermeasures against the US in response to President Trump's planned tariffs, potentially targeting major American tech firms like Google, Amazon, and X (formerly Twitter). Options include increased regulation, financial transaction taxes, and restrictions on public contracts, with the Digital Markets Act also in consideration. While the EU is ready to retaliate, it remains open to negotiations to resolve trade barriers and enhance cooperation.
Political uncertainty and potential new tariffs are impacting investment plans in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.S. economy growing at about 2% while Europe remains stagnant. The European Commission's defense plan lacks convincing substance, and the German fund for infrastructure may have limited effects on competitiveness. Meanwhile, China's technology sector is thriving, with significant gains in AI and automotive advancements, suggesting a rotation in investment opportunities across geographic areas.
Thierry Breton, the former EU commissioner, resigned amid tensions with Ursula von der Leyen and sought clearance for a non-executive advisory role at Bank of America, promising to adhere to anti-lobbying rules during a two-year cooling-off period. The commission's ethics committee approved his role, emphasizing the importance of confidentiality from his previous position.
A former Credit Suisse executive has been fined CHF 100,000 for failing to report a suspicion of money laundering related to an $8 million payment linked to the Mozambique hidden debt scandal. The Federal Department of Finance issued a criminal order against Lara Warner, who plans to contest the ruling in court.In other news, the National Council will discuss a motion to ban donations from public companies to political parties, affecting UBS, while the EU unveils plans to bolster military spending and support the steel sector amid ongoing trade tensions with the US.
Swiss interest rates are experiencing an unexpected rise, with the 10-year swap rate climbing from 0.27% to 0.85% in three months, despite earlier predictions of further cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Factors influencing this shift include rising rates in Germany and potential fiscal policies that could impact the Swiss economy positively, although a looming U.S. recession poses risks. The SNB is expected to cut rates by 0.25% soon, but the current economic conditions suggest that a significant rise in long-term rates is unlikely.
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